QUINTESSENTIALS Proposal intake / P48-41
P48-41
Overconfidence
Current proposed roles · editorial proposals, not accepted Card definitions.
Not acceptedConcept identity review
- Input id
- P48-41
- Original title
- Overconfidence
- Identity candidate ref
- QE48-C41
- Identity review status
- candidate_distinct_card_identity
- Historical roles recovered
- False
- Accepted identity
- False
Card coverage
Candidate only
Proposed concept boundary: Confidence can exceed demonstrated accuracy or evidential warrant.
Open decision
Retain the R26 diagnostic scope; compare calibration without silently turning the bottleneck into its remedy.
Missing work
- Review concept identity and role ownership before authoring a Card.
- Author role-local scope, logic and required method, diagnostic, objective or action content for the selected functions.
- Record exact inspected sources and transformations, or explicitly review QE editorial synthesis with assertion-level evidence limits.
- Obtain editorial acceptance separately from structural validation.
Complete coverage record
- Input id
- P48-41
- Original title
- Overconfidence
- Candidate identity ref
- QE48-C41
- Proposed concept boundary
- Confidence can exceed demonstrated accuracy or evidential warrant.
- Active role refs
- P48-41/E1
- Held role refs
- None recorded
- Authored card ref
- Not specified
- Fixture identity ref
- Not specified
- Related authored card refs
- None recorded
- Ownership case refs
- R18C-12
- R19C-38
- Coverage status
- candidate_only
- Unresolved decision
- Retain the R26 diagnostic scope; compare calibration without silently turning the bottleneck into its remedy.
- Missing work
- Review concept identity and role ownership before authoring a Card.
- Author role-local scope, logic and required method, diagnostic, objective or action content for the selected functions.
- Record exact inspected sources and transformations, or explicitly review QE editorial synthesis with assertion-level evidence limits.
- Obtain editorial acceptance separately from structural validation.
- Accepted identity
- False
- Evidence status
- title_derived_editorial_proposal_not_verified
P48-41/E1 · Epistemic
Epistemic bottleneck
Overconfidence is an epistemic failure in which expressed certainty exceeds the strength of available evidence or a defensible probability judgment. One confidently wrong outcome alone does not demonstrate persistent overconfidence across comparable forecasts.
Super rootDistortion & Bias
Root familyNot assigned
Parent familyNot assigned
Principle familyNot assigned
data/reconciliation/qe48-r26-semantic-correction.json
Review status and complete proposal
- Input id
- P48-41
- Title
- Overconfidence
- Owner ref
- QE48-C41
- Role id
- E1
- Stack
- Epistemic
- Proposed role type
- epistemic_bottleneck
- Effective role summary
- Overconfidence is an epistemic failure in which expressed certainty exceeds the strength of available evidence or a defensible probability judgment. One confidently wrong outcome alone does not demonstrate persistent overconfidence across comparable forecasts.
- Summary source
- Path
- data/reconciliation/qe48-r26-semantic-correction.json
- Collection
- repair
- Input id
- P48-41
- Stack
- Epistemic
- Role id
- E1
- Authority
- QE_editorial_repair_not_primary_source
- Legacy summary ref
- data/reconciliation/qe48-r4-role-repairs.json#P48-41/Epistemic/E1
- Adopted family ref
- QEF-E-BIAS
- Full family path
- Super root
- Family id
- QEF-E-BIAS
- Label
- Distortion & Bias
- Root family
- Not specified
- Parent family
- Not specified
- Principle family
- Not specified
- Family precision
- provisional_broad_family
- Review status
- r26_semantic_repair_pending_acceptance
- Human accepted
- False
- Role ref
- P48-41/E1
- Record kind
- active_proposal
- Canonical type supported
- True
- Canonical readiness
- not_assessed_not_approved