QUINTESSENTIALS QE · Knowledge & reasoning

Proposal intake / P48-34

P48-34

Calibration matters

Current proposed roles · editorial proposals, not accepted Card definitions.

Not accepted
Concept identity review
Input id
P48-34
Original title
Calibration matters
Identity candidate ref
QE48-C34
Identity review status
candidate_distinct_card_identity
Historical roles recovered
False
Accepted identity
False

Card coverage

Candidate only

Proposed concept boundary: Probabilistic forecasts can be compared with outcomes to assess calibration.

Open decision

Define forecast bins, scoring and outcome availability; distinguish calibration from confidence level or discrimination.

Missing work

  1. Review concept identity and role ownership before authoring a Card.
  2. Author role-local scope, logic and required method, diagnostic, objective or action content for the selected functions.
  3. Record exact inspected sources and transformations, or explicitly review QE editorial synthesis with assertion-level evidence limits.
  4. Obtain editorial acceptance separately from structural validation.
Complete coverage record
Input id
P48-34
Original title
Calibration matters
Candidate identity ref
QE48-C34
Proposed concept boundary
Probabilistic forecasts can be compared with outcomes to assess calibration.
Active role refs
  1. P48-34/E1
Held role refs
None recorded
Authored card ref
Not specified
Fixture identity ref
Not specified
Related authored card refs
None recorded
Ownership case refs
  1. R18C-12
  2. R18C-21
Coverage status
candidate_only
Unresolved decision
Define forecast bins, scoring and outcome availability; distinguish calibration from confidence level or discrimination.
Missing work
  1. Review concept identity and role ownership before authoring a Card.
  2. Author role-local scope, logic and required method, diagnostic, objective or action content for the selected functions.
  3. Record exact inspected sources and transformations, or explicitly review QE editorial synthesis with assertion-level evidence limits.
  4. Obtain editorial acceptance separately from structural validation.
Accepted identity
False
Evidence status
title_derived_editorial_proposal_not_verified

P48-34/E1 · Epistemic

Reasoning method

For sufficiently many relevant probability forecasts, compare probabilities with observed frequencies in suitable groups and examine calibration separately from resolution or discrimination; a proper scoring rule can assess combined forecast quality but alone does not isolate calibration, and one correct prediction is not calibration evidence.

Super rootInference & Updating
Root familyJudgment Calibration
Parent familyNot assigned
Principle familyNot assigned

data/reconciliation/qe48-r13-semantic-repairs.json

Review status and complete proposal
Input id
P48-34
Title
Calibration matters
Owner ref
QE48-C34
Role id
E1
Stack
Epistemic
Proposed role type
reasoning_method
Effective role summary
For sufficiently many relevant probability forecasts, compare probabilities with observed frequencies in suitable groups and examine calibration separately from resolution or discrimination; a proper scoring rule can assess combined forecast quality but alone does not isolate calibration, and one correct prediction is not calibration evidence.
Summary source
Path
data/reconciliation/qe48-r13-semantic-repairs.json
Collection
changes
Input id
P48-34
Stack
Epistemic
Role id
E1
Authority
new_QE_editorial_boundary_repair_not_primary_source
Legacy summary ref
data/reconciliation/qe48-checkpoint4-resolutions.json#P48-34/Epistemic/E1
Adopted family ref
QEF-E-JUDGE
Full family path
Super root
Family id
QEF-E-INF
Label
Inference & Updating
Root family
Family id
QEF-E-JUDGE
Label
Judgment Calibration
Parent family
Not specified
Principle family
Not specified
Family precision
provisional_broad_family
Review status
r13_semantic_boundary_repair_pending_acceptance
Human accepted
False
Role ref
P48-34/E1
Record kind
active_proposal
Canonical type supported
True
Canonical readiness
not_assessed_not_approved

Ownership comparisons